Van Don complex back on agenda

Van Don complex back on agenda

After more than 10 years in limbo, the long-anticipated complex has taken a step forward after the ministry (MoF) submitted its investment policy to the prime minister. The ambitious plan outlines a luxury resort-entertainment complex including a casino, with a total capital commitment exceeding $2 billion.

According to the MoF, the venture will be located in Van Yen commune of Van Don district, covering 244 hectares and operating for a maximum of 70 years. Construction is expected to span nine years from the date the investor is granted land use rights.

The proposed complex aims to become a world-class destination for high-end tourism and entertainment, capable of hosting international-scale events and boosting the competitiveness of Vietnam’s service sector. According to Quang Ninh province, the project could generate up to $9.67 billion in tax revenue over its operational life, including $5.6 billion in corporate income tax and $4 billion in VAT.

Notably, the ministry also recommended a pilot scheme allowing Vietnamese nationals to enter the casino, a proposal in line with earlier Politburo directions and seen as critical for the initiative’s feasibility. Generally, Vietnam prohibits its citizens from gambling activities, but has recently loosened that stance through several initiatives.

Despite the promising forecasts, however, investor appetite remains cautious. Economic and education expert Dr. Augustine Ha Ton Vinh said, “The issue is not the idea, but the follow-through. We’ve seen pilot casino permissions come and go, like the one in Phu Quoc. The lack of continuity in government policy has left existing and potential investors hanging.”

The Van Don undertaking is planned to be implemented in three stages. The first, from 2023 to 2027, requires $1 billion in capital; the second, from 2027 to 2031, will require $870 million; and the final phase, ending in 2032, adds another $175 million. Quang Ninh has proposed that the local authorities be responsible for selecting the investor in accordance with regulations on investment, land, and bidding.

Van Don is now classified among 13 designated special administrative-economic zones, under direct provincial management, which may add more bureaucratic clarity.

But questions linger about who will actually finance and operate such a massive development. “The biggest unanswered question is about who is going to invest,” said Dr. Vinh. “Some investors expressed interest, but they lack experience in managing casino operations. Foreign operators are cautious, especially without clarity on whether Vietnamese citizens will be allowed to play.”

The issue of local participation is critical. Vietnam currently has nine licensed casinos, only three of which are of large scale, in Ho Tram (Ba Ria–Vung Tau province), Hoi An (Quang Nam province), and Phu Quoc (Kien Giang province). A pilot launched in 2019 allowed Vietnamese citizens to gamble at Corona Resort & Casino Phu Quoc, but this trial ended at the end of 2024. Since then, no Vietnamese citizens have been legally allowed to gamble at any casino.

“Without locals, it’s hard to sustain a high-end casino, especially in remote locations like Van Don,” added Dr. Vinh, who is also advising a group of Thai investors on participating in casinos in Thailand. “If Thailand opens up before Vietnam finalises its own policy, Vietnam risks losing regional competitiveness in integrated resort tourism.”

Thailand, which currently bans gambling altogether, is seriously considering the development of three large integrated resorts with casino components. “If the Thai parliament approves, they will move fast, and they have a tourism advantage already,” Dr. Vinh warned.

Meanwhile, casinos already in operation are grappling with their own challenges. Donaco International, which runs the Aristo International Hotel casino in the northern province of Lao Cai, reported improved revenue in FY2024 of AUD13.9 million ($9 million), up from AUD4.4 million ($2.86 million) the previous year. But this turnaround was only possible due to a one-time impairment reversal of AUD19.8 million ($12.87 million), raising questions about the sustainability of its recovery.

In contrast, Royal International Corporation (RIC), operator of Royal Halong Casino, posted a $354,000 loss in Q1/2025, marking its 22nd consecutive quarterly loss. The firm generated only $1.16 million in revenue, with a gross margin of just 13.7 per cent, while overhead costs surpassed $560,000. RIC’s inability to break even illustrates the razor-thin margins casino operators are dealing with under the current regulatory regime.

While policymakers deliberate the future of Van Don, operators in existing hubs such as Ho Tram and Hoi An remain in limbo. With no clear guidelines on extending the local player pilot programme, and with no new licences issued, many investors are hesitant to expand or commit additional capital.

“There’s no certainty. Without a stable and transparent legal framework, even world-class facilities cannot attract capital,” said Dr. Vinh.

Report submitted to PM on Quang Ninh's $2.18 billion casino proposal The Ministry of Planning and Investment sent an appraisal report for the construction of the $2.18 billion Van Don casino complex in the northern province of Quang Ninh on November 25 to the prime minister, with a proposal to approve the investment plan included.